Is Michael Thomas Ready To Make the Jump?

The Saints second-year wide receiver is being given the opportunity to become Drew Brees’ next primary target but the question looms; is he more Marques Colston or Robert Meachem?

Even with how Sean Payton’s offenses constantly keep the field wide open for a variety of receivers, Brees has always had a noticeable top pass-catcher. Marques Colston made Hofstra proud by holding down the fort for a number of years by having 80+ catches in four season between 2007 and 2012. Prior to his injuries of late, Jimmy Graham was an absolute force to be reckoned with, leading the Saints in receptions for four consecutive seasons from 2011 to 2014, totaling 46 touchdowns in that time-frame. Brandin Cooks (before being straight poached by Bill Belichick) was the Saints speed demon in 2015 totaling 84 grabs for just under 1200 yards. Hell, even Reggie Bush had a turn out of the backfield at the team’s best receiver, hauling in 88 balls (ALBEIT ONLY FOR 742 YARDS) in 2006 (he also had his life taken away by Shelden Brown faster than the NCAA took away his Heisman).

But this past year, for the first time in the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era, the Saints leading receiver was a rookie; second-round pick out of Ohio State, Michael Thomas.

Thomas was lauded during his days at THE Ohio State University for fitting the old-school billing for a prototypical possession receiver. At 6'3", 212 lbs, Thomas spent the majority of his time in college playing outside the numbers (670 out of his 711 snaps during his final collegiate season were started outside the hash-marks) and was able to bring in nearly anything that was thrown his way, no matter if it was Cardele Jones, JT Barrett, Braxton Miller, or Troy Smith throwing him the ball. Per Pro Football Focus, Thomas was able to bring in 110 out of 115 catch-able balls thrown his way during his last two seasons in Columbus, giving him a measly 4.4% drop rate on balls that he should’ve caught.

Despite this, and the fact that he forced a missed tackle on 23.2 percent of his receptions in 2015, Thomas slid to the 2nd round, taken behind wide receivers Corey Coleman of Baylor, Will Fuller of Notre Dame, Josh Doctson of TCU, Laquon Treadwell of Ole Miss, and Sterling Shepard of Oklahoma.

One of the biggest reasons the rookie was able to gain so much traction while moving up the depth chart was his ability to get open and make plays on 3rd and long scenarios. Just over 50% of Thomas’ receptions came on 2nd and 3rd downs, and a whopping 70.6% of his catches came with seven or more yards to go.

Thomas ended up finishing the season with 92 catches for 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns, despite missing a chunk of time due to a foot injury. He also Thomas concluded his rookie campaign as the leader in the majority of important statistical receiving among all first-year players, and was graded by Pro Football Focus as an 89.0, good for fifth best among all receivers in the NFL during the 2016–17 season.

The case for Thomas to take a big step up during the 2017–18 season is easy to make. Receivers very rarely dwindle from a statistical stand point between their rookie and sophomore campaigns as professionals, especially not with an elite quarterback and great weapons surrounding them. Even with the loss of Cooks, the Saints will still field one of the best group of skill position players in the league. Ted Ginn Jr., Willie Snead, and Coby Fleener will all play significant roles in stretching the field both vertically and horizontally in order to create openings for Thomas, but nothing will be more helpful than New Orleans’ revamped backfield. Not to knock Travaris Cadet, Khiry Robinson, or Tim Hightower (thank you for the one week of fantasy points last year Tim), but the three-headed monster of Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and rookie Alvin Kamara has the potential to take this Saints offensive unit to a whole new level.

The upgrade at the running back position and along the offensive line (drafting of Ryan Ramcyzk in the first round, signing of Larry Warford from Detriot, and a new bill of health for Senio Kelemete who was on the PUP list last season) will do wonders for declining the offense’s reliance on Thomas and the passing game as a whole, and at the same time, will increase Thomas’s effectiveness as a spectacular route runner. Out of his 119 targets during his rookie year, ‘Can’t Guard Mike’ (as he affectionately refers to himself as) ran hitches 33 times, slants 31 times, and crossing patterns 15 times. All three of these routes are more effective, and more commonly ran, when off of play-action. Is it fair to say that the Saints may be seeing a lot more action in the box with Peterson and Kamara running behind an improved o-line as opposed to Tim Hightower behind an injured one? Absolutely. And for that reason alone, Thomas should be able to be even more effective on routes in the 7–15 yard range off of play action.

While the loss of Brandin Cooks and addition of Ted Ginn Jr. may not lead to an improvement in the Saints offense as a whole, it should lead to more targets for Michael Thomas. Cooks was 2nd on the Saints in targets last year behind Thomas with 113, and while Ted Ginn Jr. may have had 95 targets for the Panthers last year, that won’t translate to New Orleans for a variety of reasons. For one, Ginn was one of the only healthy receivers for an absolutely disheveled corps in Carolina, and two, out of the 95 targets he saw come his way from a combination of Cam Newton and (lol) Derek Anderson, he had the lowest percentage of targeted passes caught (56.8%) out of any receiver with more than 90 targets. From the league-wide reputation of Drew Brees, it seems pretty unlikely that someone who can’t hang onto the ball that easily will be able to develop a steady rapport and confluence of mutual trust in just one offseason.

The external factors alone could make a case that Thomas should put up better numbers than his rookie year, but when taken into account the work that the receiver has been putting in himself, it almost seems like a guarantee.

Thomas has reportedly put on over ten pounds of muscle this off-season, which for a receiver may seem like a negative, but as his 4.57 forty-yard dash time from last years combine shows, speed isn’t everything for a receiver at the highest level (otherwise I would obviously be in the league and not be writing about people my age in the league). Thomas had 20 forced missed tackles over the course of the 2016 season and averaged 5.2 yards after catch per reception, ranking significantly above league average among wide receivers. As an average-sized receiver he was able to be above-average in these categories, so again, it’s pretty reasonable to assume that in his second season, the new-and-improved corn-fed, beef-stacked Michael Thomas will be a force to be reckoned with after the catch.

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