My Grandmother
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A beginners guide to watching the US Presidential Election
The US Presidential Election is dominating the headlines, not least because one of the protagonists is Donald Trump. Covid-19, including Trump’s own scare, and arguments around voting by mail make Nov. 3rd a very unusual election.
Biden is well ahead in the polls but, as well know, they aren’t infallible.
Expect the first results to come in soon after 11pm (GMT) on Nov. 3th. Every major news network will cover it live so choose whichever you prefer.
Each state is counted seperately so results will trickle in long into the night, close states will take longer to announce than states with landslides.
America is huge. It has a few time zones so states in the east (New York) will start releasing results while people are still voting in the West (California).
Trump (Republican) is running for his second term against former Vice President Joe Biden (Democrat). It’s worth mentioning that if Biden wins he doesn’t become president straightaway, he’ll have to wait until a big inaugeration ceremony on January 20th.
In this article I’m only going to explain how to know who’s winning the presidential election, not how much they win by or the other votes taking place.
Here’s a seperate article of mine on the Senate races.
The US electoral system is a points game.
Each state is worth a set number of points based loosely on population. There are 538 points in total so you need 270 points to win (thats 1 point more than half).
You’ll hear these ‘points’ being called ‘Electoral College Votes’ but it’s the same thing.
California has the most people so is worth 55 points.
Wyoming and Vermont have very few people so are worth 3 points, the minimum allowed.
Whoever gets the most votes in each state gets all of its points (Nebraska and Maine are a bit different but for our purposes they don’t matter— I’ll explain why).
Once a state’s results are in, it’ll be coloured in on a map like this. It’ll be Blue for the Democrats or Red for the Republicans. This is a bit unhelpful because geographic size doesn’t matter, some states in the North East are small but high scoring.
Which states to watch?
For the casual observer, only five states will decide the night so you can ignore the rest (Trump won all 5 last time):
Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin.
Trump needs to win four of them. Biden just needs two.
Of the five, expect results from Florida and North Carolina to come in first.
(There probably aren’t too many this year)
If you want to look smarter than your friends you absolutely can. You can (roughly) predict the election by just looking at results from Virginia, which tend to come in fairly early.
It’s a Democratic state so Biden should win it, but how much he’s winning by tells us a lot about two demographically similar states nearby: North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
If Biden’s on 56%, or above, he should win both North Carolina and Pennsylvania:
Go to bed.
If Biden is between 50 and 55%, this could be close:
Grab another drink, you’re in it for the long haul.
If Biden’s losing Virginia, Trump has won:
Go to bed.
This is by far the biggest complicating issue. There are three things to keep in mind:
Biden’s votes will trickle in over the few days after the election so if Trump has a small lead in a state it could erode.
This will lead to even more claims of voter fraud from Trump’s team and they could get the courts involved if they’re losing, especially if it’s close.
Don’t expect either party to concede on the night.
Most states almost always vote for the same party and only change in a landslide. This is their baseline.
The Republicans will win: Alabama, Kansas, Arkansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina, West Virginia, Wyoming, Nebraska, Alaska, …breathe … Missouri, Montana, Utah, Oklahoma, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
(126 points)
The Democrats will win: New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, California, Maryland, Washington DC, Maine, … still here?… Washington, Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, Delaware, Oregon, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Illinois.
(213 points)
What to do I when results come in from these states?
Ignore them.
If either party does not win any state on their list then they have lost incredibly badly. But they’ll also have lost all five deciding states.
Go to bed.
The following states could ‘swing’ for either party but don’t worry about them:
Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire.
In particular, you’ll hear a lot about Texas possibly voting Democratic for the fist time in decades. But if Biden does win there he’ll have won most of the five deciding states and would be fitting his new White House curtains.
You can wade much deeper into it if you want to be more like me but I strongly advise against being anything like me.
Be warned, there’s no limit to the depths you can descend.
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